Property
prices in Greece are expected to keep falling in the coming years but
this is making homes more affordable, according to the latest
analysis of the Greek real estate market.
Prices continued
to fall in 2013 to reach a peak to current decline of 32.7% in the
third quarter of last year, says the report from Fitch Ratings.
But it points out
that recently, the Greek government implemented new initiatives to
promote residential housing liquidity. The most notable is the
decision to allow REITs beneficial tax treatment to hold residential
properties of up to 25% of their total assets. But the actual impact
of the new tax treatments remains uncertain.
Fitch expects a
further fall in house prices in the coming years towards a total peak
to trough decline of 42%. The Greek parliament extended the
moratorium on foreclosures for another 12 months in December 2013 and
this takes off some pressure on the additional supply to the housing
market.
The report also
points out that affordability for new housing transactions has
improved as house prices have fallen further, supported by the
prolonged low interest rate environment. As a result Fitch expects
stable to improving affordability for the coming years.
‘
The improving
prospects for the Greek economy and the resulting increase in
economic affordability may, however, be offset by the possible
interest rate rises and the continued leveraging of Greek banks. The
Greek market is likely to remain dislocated in 2014 with low housing
turnover and weak demand,’ the report explains.
When
it comes to lending interest rates remain much lower compared to the
pre-crisis period following the deep monetary expansion programs
initiated by the European Central Bank following the crisis.
‘
Funding costs
have therefore remained quite low for financial institutions and this
has translated into lower mortgage rates for borrowers. Due to
central bank support, Fitch does not expect interest rates to change
much in the near term and believes mortgage rates will remain stable
over 2014,’ it adds.
Also, it adds
that the level of new arrears has begun to shrink as the economy
begins to recover, however the overall volume of non-performing loans
is expected to continue to increase as Fitch expects a slow orderly
wind down of the foreclosure pipeline. Arrears should peak in
2015.
Overall mortgage lending levels are expected to remain
flat. The level of new gross mortgage lending has reached a new low,
driven by both supply and demand. On the supply side, Greek banks
continue to leverage, underwriting standards remain strict, and the
competition among lenders has also remained at lower levels. On the
demand side, mortgage applications remain at low levels as HPI
continues to decline.
‘In line with the house price
forecasts and credit availability for borrowers Fitch expects
relatively flat lending volumes over the coming years. Borrowers
incentives as well as their ability, to refinance is likely to be
impaired due to a combination of lenders’ reduced access to
financing, banks’ plans to leverage and tighten lending criteria,
rising default rates and declining house prices,’ the report
concludes.
Corfu’s
position as a high end recreation destination means that its property
market has proved resilient when set against the markets of mainland
Greece, according to a new analysis from real estate firm Savills.
Prices are down
by around 30% from their former highs in the desirable north eastern
coast of the Greek island, but this is much less that falls in excess
of 50% in mainland cities.
The analysis
suggests that the market seems to have bottomed out so good deals are
on offer. However, it points out that demand is selective and turnkey
properties are favored, while the market for building plots has all
but disappeared.
British, German
and French buyers account form most of the purchases and most sellers
are Greeks. The recent introduction of a golden visa program is
anticipated to generate interest from Chinese and Russian buyers in
particular.
In the nearby
Balkans property markets are also attracting foreign buyers. A
sovereign state since 2006, Montenegro has enjoyed strong economic
growth and inward investment in recent years, the report says. It
offers a favorable tax climate and pro-business environment.
Real estate
investment has been focused on the Bay of Kotor around the old
Mediterranean port and when complete, it will include Europe’s
first ‘One & Only’ resort. Porto Montenegro is already
established as the Mediterranean’s largest super yacht marina.
Russians are the
biggest non domestic buyer group, while Montenegro’s open
investment environment has attracted institutional investment from
the Middle East.
Like
the economies in many Mediterranean states, Montenegro’s rapid
growth came to a halt with the global financial crisis. Its emerging
real estate investment suffered as a consequence, with volumes today
down 40% from their former highs.
Croatia was
another country hit by the Eurozone debt crisis. Residential property
prices fell significantly in the global downturn, but have stabilized
in the last year. Apartments on the coast have now risen slightly in
value, by 1% in the year to January 2014.
Croatia is a
country of 4.3 million people with a coastline of some 6,268
kilometers in total, the 20th longest in the world, so it offers a
wealth of options for those seeking seaside properties.
Buyers here are
diverse. At a national level, Slovenians account for the largest
proportion of international buyers, some 43% of all foreign
purchasers between 2010 and 2012, for example.
Germans,
Italians and Austrians account for 35% of buyers, concentrated in the
north of the country. Buyers in the south include Swedes, Slovakians
and the British. The latter are particularly attracted to Dubrovnik,
a UNESCO world heritage site. This is among Croatia’s most
resilient residential markets and seems to attract buyers with a
preference for exceptional and historic buildings, in the same way as
the Venice market. Historic apartments inside the city walls still
offer rental yields exceeding 6%.
